Act of Disunion

The Zero Option

2012-01-17T07:19:00.001Z

Now that Scottish Independence is firmly on the agenda, and the sovereign debt crisis threatens to engulf the Eurozone, it is time to look at the implications of national debt on the finances of an independent Wales.

Firstly some facts and figures – the UK National Debt currently stands at £940 Billion with interest payments on this debt amounting to £43 Billion per year. Or to put it another way, every UK citizen owes almost £16,000 each, and has to pay around £720 per year on interest. If you remove the economically inactive, then the average taxpayer is having to pay around £1500 per year on interest payments alone.

Looking at this from a Welsh context an independent Wales would initially assume responsibility for 5% of the UK National Debt, or around £47 billion but we would also ‘inherit’ a 5% share of UK National Assets.

While Wales would undoubtedly want its share of Gold & Forex reserves and other transferable assets, as well as physical assets located on Welsh soil, it would be impractical to share out many of the assets (for example central London property portfolio, and overseas embassies) and politically unacceptable to share others (for example Trident submarines and their nuclear deterrent). In reality, a valuation of all assets would need to be made, and where it is not possible or practical to share out the assets proportionately , then a corresponding reduction in share of the debt would need to be made.

This is not just wishful thinking, this principle was established during the breakup of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, and in many cases the easiest solution was to transfer neither debts nor assets other than those physically located in the new country – the so-called zero-option.

In practice I believe that Wales would take a proportion of UK assets and liabilities but that these would be closer to a 1-2% share than a proportionate 5%.
And this means that in an independent Wales, the average taxpayer could see a reduction in interest payments of more than £1000 per year.

To put this in a personal context, this is the same as getting yourself out of a debt crisis by moving to a smaller house to reduce the mortgage, while watching your next door neighbours struggle to make finance payments on their new speedboat.

Welsh Broadcasting

2011-08-16T12:00:00.003Z

I generally try and avoid discussions about broadcasting, because it inevitably degenerates into an argument about the viability of S4C and state support for the Welsh Language. But if Wales is going to move towards independence, then we need to look again at the content and control of Welsh broadcasting, as the current situation does not serve Wales well.

Lets deal with some facts first:
• The Licence Fee generates an income of £3.45 billion across the UK, which taken proportionately indicates that around £170 million is collected in Wales.
• The Licence Fee is currently spent 66% on TV, 17% on radio,6% online and 11% in transmission and collection costs, which would equate to around £110 million for Welsh TV and £30 million for Welsh radio
• Additionally S4C currently receives a grant from Westminster of around £100 million, but which will fall to around £75 million next year

And by way of a fair comparison:
• The budget of the Irish state broadcaster RTE is around €370 million, of which around 50% is funded from a TV licence, and around 50% from sponsorship and advertising
• The budget of the Irish language broadcaster TG4 is around €50 million, which is 95% funded by state grant with a modest 5% commercial income.
I always consider Ireland to be the most obvious country to make comparisons with as they are of a similar size to us and in this context they have a similar language profile to ours. They appear to be able to operate a national broadcasting service using a mix of licence fees, advertising and direct grants within similar budgets to us, and we should seek to develop a similar model.

So to begin with we need to devolve all responsibilities for broadcasting in Wales to the Welsh Government, together with all licence fees generated in Wales, under the control of a Welsh Broadcasting Authority (add your own preferred name here in whatever language, but for the purposes of this post I will use WBA).
The WBA would be responsible for awarding licenses to all Welsh broadcasters (TV and Radio in both languages); to provide grant funding to broadcasting organisations; to fund a Welsh News organisation and to commission public service programming (including news).

I will upset a few people by saying that the BBC is overstaffed, spoilt and overpaid and we can not afford to maintain it in its current form – but this is not only in Wales, and the BBC in UK as a whole is likely to be squeezed over the next few years anyway, so lets make sure it is squeezed in the right direction. I would start by completely separating BBC Cymru Wales from BBC UK – remember this is a state owned organisation and we in Wales effectively own 5% of its assets – and lets for sake of argument rename this the CWBC. I would then split CWBC into a production arm, which would continue to make programs for BBC UK and worldwide as at present, and a separate broadcasting arm.

Meanwhile, the WBA should invite broadcasters to apply for licences for national TV and radio stations, in both English and Welsh language. These would initially be assigned to existing operators, but with the expectation that these would be progressively re-tendered on an open basis over the next 3-5 years. The WBA shall specify minimum public service requirements for each station including Welsh news and current affairs content, and language commitments, and invite potential broadcasters to bid for a franchise for a minimum grant.

The size of the grant would inevitably depend on the number of stated criteria – with a Welsh language TV channel, and a dedicated English language TV channel with say 25% public service requiring more subsidy than a fully commercial service carrying a simple daily news bulletin only – and we should permit limited advertising and sponsorship on all channels so as to reduce the size of public subsidy.

The WBA should also commission an independent Welsh news service to compete against CWBC, and offer its services to commercial TV channels in order to meet their obligations.

An independent Wales can not expect to simply recreate our own BBC, but that does not mean that we can not provide high quality broadcasting. Ultimately we will only get what we pay for and so we have to decide what service level is necessary for each channel, and then ensure that we receive value for money.

Policing Revisited

2011-08-14T11:37:00.002Z

A few months ago, I posted some thoughts on how we should devolve and remodel our police forces.

Now in the aftermath of the English riots, it is essential that we take control of our police forces away from London, as otherwise we will have irrelevant solutions imposed on us for non-existent problems.

I am not saying thet we do not have problems here in Wales, but we do not need to be subject to David Cameron's knee-jerk reactions.

Devolve Policing and Criminal Justice now.

Welsh Exports and Imports

2011-08-10T09:28:00.003Z

With all of the trouble in the English cities, it was pleasing to see one of our latest exports being put to use, as Welsh police vans emblazoned with HEDDLU were seen cruising around Oxford Circus – as someone said on another blog, it was like a scene from Torchwood.

Thankfully Wales appears to be staying trouble-free and I believe that this is because as a society we are generally more tolerant and with a greater sense of community than is found in the English cities. Many of the rioters in England are black and immigration is blamed by some as a root cause, but here in Cardiff we have one of the earliest immigrant communities in Britain - Yemeni and Somali sailors settled around Cardiff Docks but they are not rioting – as they have been accepted and integrated into our society and rightly feel as if they are part of a wider community. There are also plenty of white faces among the rioters/looters in London and Manchester – but I cant see the residents of poor estates like the Gurnos wrecking the place – because despite its faults it is still their home.

Which bring me to one of our recent imports – England’s low-life. Jac has pointed out how Welsh housing associations are taking grants from the Welsh Government to build new homes which are then filled with problem families, drug addicts, parolees etc needing to be rehoused from English cities. Not only is this failing to address the Welsh demand for affordable housing, it is eroding those very same values which have kept our streets peaceful over the last few nights. This might not be the case if we continue to import unwanted scum.

It is madness to allow this practice to continue, and we must abolish all cross-border organisations (such as the Probation Service) which encourage this and ensure that we use our limited funds to develop Welsh solutions for Welsh problems, implemented by Welsh organisations on behalf of the Welsh people. Because the alternative is plain to see on the TV news.

Twice The Price

2011-07-31T12:00:00.001Z

Not many people in Wales have heard of Richard Price, who was born in Llangeinor, Bridgend around 300 years ago. But he was arguably one of the most influential Welshmen ever to have lived and he is generally regarded as being one of the architects of the American Revolution.

He left Wales for London where he became a preacher, and also became active in politics, writing various articles and pamphlets which were critical of the British policy towards its North American colonies. In particular, he published an article entitled “Observations on the Nature of Civil Liberty, the Principles of Government, and the Justice and Policy of the War with America” which was widely read and acknowledged as inspiring the American Declaration of Independence and Constitution. Many of the American Founding Fathers visited Price in London to discuss his ideas and he was later honoured, along with George Washington, with a Doctor of Law from Yale University.

Today, at nearby Harvard University, Richard’s namesake – Adam Price - is studying at the John F. Kennedy School of Government for a Mid-Career Master in Public Administration, following which he will complete a fellowship at the Center for International Development, where he is studying the economic plight of small nations. Adam is then expected to return to Wales to apply the knowledge he has gained, and will hopefully assume the leadership of Plaid Cymru.

So while Wales helped America gain its independence from Britain, could America soon be credited with helping to achieve Welsh independence??

A Norwegian Lesson

2011-07-24T13:25:00.001Z

The recent events in Norway are shocking and my thoughts are with the families of the victims. The perpetrator appears to be a supporter of Christian conservatism and seems to have been making some form of political statement. His actions were clearly misguided and will be rightly condemned by politicians on all sides and indeed by all civilized people, but it does raise a serious question – when is direct action justified in support of political causes?

The establishment line of course, is that we live in a society governed by laws which should not be broken no matter how passionately you may feel. But what do you do to publicise a cause if you believe that your voice is simply not being heard ?
Just to be absolutely clear – I am not suggesting that the events in Norway could be justified in any form – violent attacks on innocent people have no place under any circumstances. But there are plenty of cases where reliance on the ballot box alone will not deliver, and direct action in some form may be required.

Here in Wales we have had Cymdeithas yr Iaith’s civil disobedience campaign and Gwynfor Evan’s threatened hunger strike as examples of non-violent action as well as Meibion Glyndwr’s arson campaign and sporadic bomb attacks by MAC/FWA as examples of more extreme actions but which were directed against property not people. These tactics were deemed necessary as the conventional political processes were not delivering, and each was successful (to a greater or lesser degree) in raising public awareness and forcing the establishment politicians to take action.

I am not entirely clear what point the Norwegian attacker was trying to make, but I firmly believe that he has done his cause a great disservice by resorting to such extreme tactics.

Wales United

2011-07-20T05:38:00.001Z

Congratulations to Swansea City for reaching the highest tier in the English football league, which will raise the city’s profile around the world, but for many will simply reinforce the view that Wales is just part of England. We must use Swansea’s profile while it lasts to do a bit of nation-building.

Apart from Swansea and Cardiff, there are four other Welsh clubs (Wrexham, Newport, Colwyn Bay & Merthyr) who play in the English pyramid. In the case of Cardiff and Swansea the English Leagues give them an opportunity to play at the highest professional level, and I am not suggesting that they should give up this coveted status. However, I can not see any advantage for the other four clubs in pursuing the English dream – which in the past has proved unsustainable and driven them to bankruptcy and obscurity. Apart from a small hard-core at each club, nobody in Wales has any idea who these teams are playing and their profile could be raised by joining the Welsh Premier League, where they would join a number of former ‘exiles’ including Bangor, Caernarfon, Rhyl, Bridgend & Barry. This should be far more interesting to TV and sponsors as well as providing regular derby matches with away supporters, and with the genuine attraction of European qualification.

There are only a handful of Welsh-qualified players playing for Swansea, or Cardiff – this might be inevitable if we want to have professional football, but there is a similar situation in Newport and Wrexham, and it is hardly surprising that the Welsh national team is so poor. A united Welsh Premier League which provides an opportunity for local players would hugely benefit Welsh football in the longer term – with a target for aspiring Welsh players to join one of our two professional clubs

We should the opportunity of Swansea’s high profile (which unfortunately will probably only last a season or two..) to increase the profile of the Welsh league and cup competitions and remind ourselves that Wales is not part of England.

A Glamorgan Metro

2011-07-11T12:11:00.004Z

I posted earlier about the need to develop an integrated metro system serving south-east Wales,and posted specific proposals for a Cardiff Metro, which would form the core of the overall system. The core Cardiff Metro would be fed by two outer networks – a Glamorgan Metro and a Gwent Metro.

Taking the Glamorgan Metro system first, this is largely in place already, in the form of the Valley Lines. The Rhymney Valley to Penarth services should continue as-is with the main improvement being interconnectivity with the Cardiff Metro services. I propose some changes to the Taff Valley lines, including two small line extensions – from Aberdare to Hirwaun and a Cardiff Airport spur – but I also suggest some schedule/route changes to improve journey times.
Firstly I would make the Merthyr service run as a stopping service to Pontypridd, but then as an express to Cardiff Queen Street, stopping only at Radyr to allow interchange with Cardiff Metro services. The service would then continue to Cardiff Central, and then as an express to Barry before terminating at Cardiff Airport. This would improve journey times from the extremities of the network.
The Rhondda Valley and Cynon Valley service would stop at all stations to Cardiff Queen Street, and then continue to Barry and Barry Island as at present. However, I suggest re-routing every other train on these routes to join the City line at Radyr and continue to Cardiff Central from the west. The advantage to doing this is that it releases capacity at Queen Street , while maintaining (or improving) journey times to Cardiff Central, which will become an increasingly important commuter destination when the planned Cardiff Central Business District becomes a reality.

These are relatively minor changes and can be implemented very quickly, but the real improvements – both in terms of efficiency and speed – will come with electrification. The priority of which should be the Cardiff Airport to Merthyr route, with other lines to follow progressively.

Fourth Severn Crossing

2011-07-03T07:44:00.005Z

There has been a lot of discussion over the last few years regarding whether a Severn Barrage is technically or financially viable or politically or environmentally acceptable. My opinion is that while the Cardiff-Weston barrage could be built technically, there are too many risks associated with this particular location, and it is right that this particular option has been shelved.
Personally I am in favour of building a smaller barrage upstream – the ‘Shoots’ barrage – mainly because it presents far less risks, and it would also leave the option open for tidal lagoons to be constructed downstream. But I am also in favour because it could incorporate a new railway crossing to replace the Severn Tunnel, which remains the only major bottleneck to bringing high speed rail to Wales.

One earlier suggestion was to build a railway line across the top of the barrage, but this would either require swing bridges to be built across the shipping locks which would massively disrupt traffic flow, or a high level bridge which would need to be +60m above the water, with very long approaches which would effectively remove any advantages from using the barrage.
However, another alternative would be to construct a tunnel built into the barrage itself. The barrage would consist of three sections – a northern embankment around 3m long, a southern embankment of around 2.5m, and a central section around 2m long which would contain the turbines, sluice gates and shipping locks.

The central section would be built using a series of large precast concrete caissons which would be built in a dry dock and then floated and sunk into position. A railway tunnel could be built in the same way, and placed at a lower level prior to placing the central barrage caissons.

The adjoining sections would then be placed at a gradually increasing level within the embankment, eventually surfacing part of the way along the embankment in an open cut, before reaching ground level on dry land, where it would then need to reconnect to the main lines.

The maximum gradient should be less than 2% which is more than acceptable for electric trains, although would not be suitable for freight trains.

While this form of construction would not be cheap if built independently, the marginal cost of adding it to the barrage construction would be significantly lower, and we should not miss this opportunity to develop an integrated power and rail infrastructure.

Going Nuclear

2011-06-28T09:24:00.003Z

When I was young and idealistic, I was strongly anti-nuclear. However over the last few years I had slowly come around to the opinion that it was a manageable risk, and should not be automatically ruled out. However, recent events in Japan have now put me firmly back in the anti-nuclear camp.

Wales has two nuclear sites, one at Wylfa and the other now disused at Trawsfynydd. Both of these sites are remote, and while an accident would have a huge impact on the local areas they would have only a limited impact on the national economy. However, the same can not be said of the English nuclear site at Hinckley Point in Somerset, which is only 15 miles from Barry, and 20 miles from Cardiff.

I used to think that the chances of a nuclear accident were so remote as to make it a theoretical concept only, but the Japanese tsunami has clearly demonstrated how a theoretical possibility can quickly become a horrific reality. What makes this even more alarming, is the fact that tsunamis are not just theoretically possible in the Severn estuary – they are a proven historical fact.

In 1607 a tsunami estimated at 6m height swept up the Severn estuary, killing thousands of people in the low-lying (and then relatively lightly populated) areas of south Carmarthenshire, south Gwent and north Somerset. Apart from the absolute devastation to our cities and towns that such a wave would cause today, it would also take out the Hinckley Point site.

In nuclear terms, 20 miles is a very short distance , and it would quickly turn a natural disaster into a man-made catastrophe which could require the long term evacuation of half a million people around our capital.
While we must aim to take control over Welsh energy sources, we must not forget the very real threat posed by nuclear power from outside our borders, and should lobby to prevent further expansion at Hinckley Point.

Gambling with our future

2011-06-23T11:26:00.002Z

It is excellent news for our struggling tourism sector that National Geographic have identified Cardiff as one of the top 10 summer destinations in the world!!
Apart from its obvious cultural and sporting attractions, Cardiff has also developed a reputation as one of the top destinations for stag/hen nights in Britain. This should not be dismissed so quickly as it brings lots of money into the city, and encourages hotel owners to build more rooms, and encourages flight operators to lay on more flights.

Cardiff could build further on this, and model itself on Las Vegas – not just build a convention centre next to the Millennium Stadium, but also develop our own ‘Strip’ to the south of the new Central Business District. Bute Street has always had a racy reputation, so why not live up to it – relocate Cardiff’s existing casinos and strip clubs into a new purpose built ‘adult entertainment zone’. It would be relatively isolated here so easy to police, and kept away from the more upmarket tourist destinations.

It may not appeal to the more politically-correct, but it will appeal to businessmen attending conventions as well as the stag/hen crowd, and bring even more high-spending visitors to the city.
I would also suggest doing something similar in say Rhyl, but on a smaller scale (and without the upmarket competition).

Keeping the Severn Bridge Tolls

2011-06-22T09:28:00.006Z

Looking at roads before I return to rail, I have always believed that the biggest single thing that the Welsh Government could do to stimulate inward investment in Wales (at least in the south) is to abolish the Severn Bridge tolls.

Yes, I know that this is not under their control, but if a bit of lateral thinking was applied, the WG could offer to buy out the remaining toll period from the English transport department, and then simply abolish the toll.

But then I started thinking about unintended consequences as Chepstow, Caldicot, Magor etc would quickly become commuter suburbs of Bristol - with income tax gathered on the wrong side of the bridge while local house prices soar.

So why not keep the tolls - but for private cars only. Maybe reduce the tolls to say £2 each way, and free travel at night and on sundays and holidays. But the wealth generating HGVs should be able to travel for free.

Tawe Rail

2011-06-19T07:07:00.004Z

I dont want to be accused of being Cardiff-centric, so before I look back at the south-east again, I thought I would look at transport links around Swansea Bay.

Anyone who has tried to cross Swansea Bay by rail, whether using local services or intercity, can confirm that it is a long and tortuous process. To be fair, the intercity service is reasonably good until Port Talbot, but after that the train slows to a crawl through Neath and down the Swansea Valley to the terminus in Swansea. Then a change of trains to continue westwards to Llanelli and beyond. It currently takes almost one hour to travel from Swansea to Cardiff, with Llanelli more than 1 hour and 20 minutes from Cardiff.

But it doesn’t have to be this way – Brunel built a much faster route across Swansea, closely following the M4 from Briton Ferry to Pontardulais, and if this route was adopted for intercity trains, with a new ‘parkway’* station built adjacent to junction 45 of the M4 to serve as Swansea’s main intercity railway station, then journey times from Swansea to Cardiff could be reduced by maybe 10 minutes, with journey times from Llanelli and all points west reduced by 20 minutes or more. At the same time I would divert the Heart of Wales service, which currently goes via Llanelli to terminate directly at the new station. This would bring places like Ammanford more than 60 minutes closer to Cardiff.

The Swansea High Street station would remain, but used as the terminus for South Wales line local services to Bridgend, which would travel via Neath. Neath would unfortunately lose its direct intercity connection but residents could either use the ‘New’ Swansea station, or use local train services to join the main line at Port Talbot.

Meanwhile, Swansea High Street would also be connected via two new tram lines – One line would follow the Tawe Valley from the New station to High Street and then continue on to the Marina and then west along the coast to Mumbles. A second line would follow the existing line from Llanelli to High Street and then continue east along Fabian Way. This line could possibly be extended to Port Talbot via the old Baglan bridge, and these new lines should serve as a stimulus for local investment, in particular around the new Swansea station.

(Click on diagram to view a better image)

*ps – I don’t like the Parkway name, and the new station needs a better name – Swansea Tawe? Swansea North?

Cardiff Metro

2011-06-16T13:57:00.008Z

Considering the Cardiff Metro system first, Cardiff already has a fairly extensive rail network largely due to its history as a coal port. It has 20 railway stations, but which do not fully cover the city, particularly in the East, and none on the South Wales Main Line apart form Cardiff Central.

There are three lines completely in the city – the Coryton line, City line & Cardiff Bay line, with other stations served by the Cardiff Valley Lines services, and these lines should form the basis of a new Metro system, which is needed to efficiently distribute employees, tourists and shoppers, to relieve traffic congestion, and to encourage new investment in areas such as the proposed Cardiff Central Business District and Cardiff Bay. It would also improve access to existing employment centres such as Newport Road, Ty Glas Avenue, and encourage development at Brownfield sites such as Ely paper mills. I initially propose three new lines:

Cardiff Circle Line.
Firstly, the existing Coryton and City lines form an almost unbroken loop, and I propose to close the remaining gap between Coryton and Radyr to form a continuous circular line which I have unimaginatively called the Cardiff Circle Line. This will involve construction of just 1km of new line across open countryside, together with a new bridge crossing the Taff and new station platforms just to the south of the existing Radyr station, which would be connected by walkway. I would also build new stations at Ely Bridge in the west, and Roath Park in the east as well as possibly at Crwys Road. Apart from the two main interchanges at Queen Street and Central, there would also be connections with other lines at Heath, Radyr and Ely Bridge. I expect this line would run with 2 trains per hour (tph) and would not be a priority for electrification a sit is largely self contained.

South Cardiff Line
The South Wales Main Line runs across Cardiff from East to West, but apart from Central station there are no local stations and this is a wasted corridor, especially as it is largely 4-tracked and is due for electrification, and passes straight past one of Wales largest tourist attractions at St Fagans.
So I would establish a series of stations at St Mellons, Rumney, Rover Way, Splott and Lloyd George (Avenue) in the east and at Canton, Ely Bridge and St Fagans in the west, and then run shuttle trains back and for with a frequency of 2 tph. This line follows the South Wales Main Line which is due for electrification, so should be electrified from Day 1. Local services from Bridgend and Newport should stop at St Fagans and St Mellons respectively to allow interchanges to the Metro service, and there would also be interchanges with other metro lines at Ely Bridge and Lloyd George.

Cardiff Central Line
The key stage of the Cardiff Metro should be to redevelop Cardiff Queen Street Station to allow trains to run directly from Cardiff Bay via Queen Street northwards to Radyr and then beyond to a new station at Tongwynlais which would be the site of a large Park & Ride facility adjacent to the M4. I would also add new stations at Maindee and Gabalfa and operate this service at 4tph. This line should be a priority for electrification as it would form phase 1 of the electrification of the main Valleys line.
The existing station at Radyr would allow interchange with Valley line services and Circle line services and I would also create a new station at Lloyd George to allow interchange with South Cardiff Line.
The biggest problem in achieving this is the bottleneck at Queen Street and the line capacity immediately north of the station before the Rhymney Valley line diverges. Improvements are already being implemented at the station which should alleviate the current signalling problems, and in order to free up line capacity I would propose switching 2tph on the Valleys services from this Central Line to travel directly from Radyr to Central using the Circle line.

Cardiff Metro Network
So for the sake of building 1 km of track, 1 river crossing and 12 simple platform stations, Cardiff can achieve a self contained metro system, with a network as below:

I estimate that this network could be delivered for as little as £100 million over 3 years, with costs shared between Cardiff Council and Welsh Government, plus contributions from developers.
Further improvements could include a tram line running from Culverhouse Cross via CBD to Roath Basin, and maybe a line from Cardiff Gate and Pentwyn in the east. However these would require significant investment, so lets not worry about them for now – just identify and protect the layout.

The Right Track

2011-06-15T07:47:00.004Z

Now that the Welsh Government has legislative powers, and is likely to receive financial borrowing powers shortly, we need to use these powers wisely and in particular implement a program of improvements to our economic base. Over the years we have spent a fortune on inducing foreign companies to invest in unpopular locations, and once the grants run out then so do the jobs.

The most efficient investments we can make is in our transport infrastructure – if we can not persuade employers to move to our deprived areas, then we should improve transport links to work locations to enable people to get from our poorer areas to where the jobs are. The presence of an efficient transport infrastructure is a major factor for companies considering inward investment, and this should be given the highest priority.

A report was recently published by Cardiff Business Partnership proposing the development of an integrated metro system serving Cardiff and South East Wales. The report made a compelling case for the metro based on business needs and economic development, and one issue that came across strongly was the need to fully devolve rail transport so to take control of rail investment in Wales, which is currently starved of funds by Westminster.

The report contained only limited details of a proposed network, so I have prepared a series of posts with some detailed proposals. While I will start with the south-east Wales rail network, I also have proposals for improving the rail networks elsewhere in Wales as well as some proposals for roads which I will publish separately later. I have already posted some thoughts on air transport here.

Coming back to south-east Wales, there is already an extensive suburban rail network around Cardiff, and I believe that this network should be removed from the dead hands of Arriva Trains Wales and assigned to a new operator, and developed into three separate metro networks, covering:
• Cardiff
• Glamorgan
• Newport & Gwent

The three systems should operate as a fully integrated and coordinated network with common ticketing which includes local bus services. However, each of the individual Metros should retain a separate unique identity, supported by relevant local authorities.
I am not proposing major investments, as the network largely exists. But for a relatively small investment we can implement significant improvement to the transport system, and we should not underestimate the intangible benefits that promoting the upgraded system as a Metro would bring.

Four posts to follow…..

Fraggle Rock

2011-06-12T14:51:00.008Z

We do not have many good news stories in the Welsh economy, but the recent news that Welsh shale gas reserves could be much higher than previously thought and would bring a much needed boost to the Welsh economy should be welcomed by all. To put things in perspective, the estimated reserves would make Wales self-sufficient in natural gas for 80 years.

However, there are already pressure groups set up spreading tales of doom and gloom about possible environmental risks, and point to cases in America where shale gas production has poisoned groundwater sources.

The problem is that in order to extract the gas you use a process called hydraulic fracturing , or Fragging, which uses high pressure water to shatter the rock which enables the trapped gas to be released. To make fragging more efficient chemicals are added to the water which aids the flow of gas from the rock, and these chemicals are not very friendly. In a few cases in America these chemicals have found their way into groundwater, contaminating drinking water wells. But the American situation is not the same as Wales, where the shale gas is to be found much deeper, and where we typically rely on rain-filled reservoirs for water, not susceptible groundwater.

I don’t want to trivialise this potential problem, but we have to recognise that any industrial process has potential risks but providing these risks are identified and properly managed then this should not present any concerns. There is nothing inherently unsafe about the Fragging process and if wells are properly designed, constructed and maintained, with independent monitoring there is no reason why this should present any environmental problems.

But we must make sure that this natural resource is properly developed for the benefit of the Welsh economy, and not simply exploited and abandoned like our earlier coal industry. We need to ensure that the construction work is not over-reliant on an itinerant workforce with local contractors and support services used as far as possible, and most importantly that the World Bank Equator principles for sustainable development are applied.

UPDATE: This is in response to a comment below.

Transport 1 - Air

2011-06-10T04:56:00.009Z

If Wales is to be an economic success then we must improve our transport infrastructure. This is essential for attracting new business investments, as well as enabling people to travel to work, and I will share my thoughts on road and rail improvements in other postings, but first of all I want to look at air travel.

It is a simple fact that international businesses need to have access to international travel and Wales is not well served in this area, and this will influence decisions on inward investment.
Our only airport in Cardiff has limited capabilities and is never going to compete with Heathrow. However it does have regular flights to Amsterdam, from where you can fly virtually anywhere in the world. We need to ensure that this service is maintained and increased in frequency, and providing a subsidy to KLM would be a far better use of our limited resources than supporting IeuanAir .

Passenger numbers have fallen at Cardiff Airport recently, and there is the danger of this becoming a vicious spiral – passengers don’t consider flying from Cardiff because there are only limited flights – then airlines reduce their flights because there are insufficient passengers and so on. So we need to do something to get more passengers using the airport by making it easier to use, which would then encourage operators to use the airport, and so achieve a critical mass as Bristol airport has achieved.
Cardiff Airport has very poor public transport links, with only one train/hour which needs to be reached by bus. But the Cardiff area already has an extensive railway network and it would be relatively simple (and low cost) to connect the Airport directly into this network. Currently, there are 5 trains per hour travelling between Cardiff Central and Barry. One of these trains continues past the Airport and on to Bridgend, while the other four continue to Barry Island where they terminate. I suggest that if a new spur of only around 1 km was built to connect the airport directly to the Vale of Glamorgan railway line, then two of the services currently terminating in Barry Island could be diverted instead to terminate at the airport.

This would massively improve the airports connectivity with a journey time to Cardiff Central of around 30 minutes and should lead to an increase in passenger numbers.

I estimate that this could be implemented for as little as £10 million, which is a fraction of the cost of the Welsh Government’s earlier plans to drive a new link road through open countryside to the M4. The road access to the airport still needs improving, but this should consist of on-line improvements to existing and otherwise planned roads such as the Dinas Powys by-pass.

But international travellers will still want to use the major airports at Heathrow (for south Wales) and Manchester (for north Wales) and we have to accept that, and ensure that access to these airports is improved, in particular by rail improvements.

It is currently difficult to reach Heathrow by train, involving a change at either Reading or Paddington. However, the new High Speed rail (HS2) plans will include a new station in West London at Old Oak which will also be served by intercity trains to south Wales, as well as Crossrail trains to Heathrow, and international services to Paris & Brussels. This new interchange together with electrification of the main line will significantly reduce journey times between south Wales and Heathrow but it is still not a direct access, and we should lobby for the proposed Heathrow Hub station to be built alongside the airport.
In the case of Manchester Airport, there are some services from north Wales, but these are very limited and not a realistic option. But a new international station is planned to be built as part of the HS2 plans, and we should lobby for new rail connections to be built to the west which would allow direct access to north Wales, as well as allowing high speed rail access to mainland Europe.

More Forests

2011-06-04T05:42:00.002Z

Returning again to the recent suggestion to plant extensive forests in Wales, this should not be dismissed out of hand - not because of the questionable tourism benefits, but because this is one of our natural resources that can be developed and exploited, providing much needed jobs and a boost to the economy.

Wales is already heavily forested in places, with the Foresty Commission for Wales claiming that it provides 4,200 jobs and is worth £400 million a year to the economy. While the green lobby may object to the industrialisation of our landscapes, there are many areas, particularly around the South Wales Valleys, where forests can dramatically improve the view.

In my opinion, we should be planning to significantly increase our forested land, by say 100% over the next 10 years and 200% over 20 years – Britain is currently under supplied with timber, having to rely on imports from Scandinavia, so the potential demand is already there. But more importantly, we should not only be developing the primary timber business, but we should be looking to develop value added industries which use wood as a raw material including building materials, paper products and furniture.

I don’t think it is unrealistic to increase this sector to provide a further 20,000 jobs, and we can still let the tourists have their fun as well.

Tourism

2011-06-02T16:04:00.001Z

The recent suggestion that large parts of Wales should be forested to provide a playground for the English cities highlights everything that is wrong in the Welsh tourist industry. We are lucky to be blessed with spectacular scenery and fascinating historical buildings, but how much money do they actually bring in to Wales?

While its is an admirable sentiment to allow free access to our National Parks and museums it means that we are giving our greatest assets away for nothing – often for the benefit of visitors from across the border who bring their own packed lunches so to avoid spending any money here, and just clog up the roads.

So we should first find a way to charge an access fee for our National Parks – it is not practical to place turnstiles and pay booths everywhere, but it should be feasible to apply a flat fee of say £10/day to cover car access or £50/coach – which would be charged to park in any of the National Park car parks, but also alongside any public highways within the park area, on a pay and display basis which would be enforced by Park Rangers. Residents living within the park boundaries and within say 10 miles of the park would be exempt, as would anyone arriving by public transport or on a pre-arranged organised educational visit.

Similar arrangements should be established at the museums and major historical sites and areas of natural beauty, but at a reduced cost.

It is also common in tourist areas around the world to charge a tourist tax of around 5-10% at hotels, restaurants, attractions etc. This tax could be applied seasonally so to encourage more visitors in the quieter months.

Finally I would apply a caravan tax - £20/day for anyone towing a caravan on our roads (That should at least improve Jeremy Clarkson’s view of Wales).

That addresses the income from tourism, but what to do with the revenue? This should be paid into a tourism development fund that would be used for developing specific projects, such as infrastructure improvements in the National Parks, rebuilding and restoration projects etc, but also for funding new initiatives. In France they have the son-et-lumiere shows at their chateaus – why not have a series of ‘Sain a golau’ shows around our Castles ? Or establish a King Arthur Trail taking in the often ignored hill forts of Glamorgan?

Most importantly all tourism developments should follow the Equator principles for sustainable development.

Policing

2011-05-30T14:56:00.003Z

There is a consensus building up that the next area to be devolved should be policing. Predictably the unionists are saying that it must not be done because criminals do not respect national boundaries, while disregarding the simple reality that the police forces of Scotland and Northern Ireland are already devolved without any problem.

But we should not simply devolve responsibility and leave the existing structures intact – we should take a long hard look at what we want our police forces to do, and be prepared to make changes.

A few years ago, the UK Home Office tried to impose a rationalisation of the Welsh police into one single national force, which was immediately condemned by police forces and politicians alike, as it made policing too remote. But maybe they were not being radical enough.

Britain is fairly unique in the world in only having one layer of policing – many countries around the world have two or more layers of police forces with different responsibilities. Due to television most people are familiar with the American structure of a Federal FBI working alongside the city police departments or county sheriff, but many people are not aware that a similar structure also exists in France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc.

So why not split our forces down the middle – half of the existing forces to be reallocated into a series of county forces, with direct responsibility for front line policing with the remainder forming a national force with responsibility for central support services, major crimes, etc.

The smaller forces must accept that they do not need an elaborate hierarchy of chief constables, deputy chief constables etc, and must operate on a lean structure with no BMW patrol cars, glossy publicity magazines, state of the art custody centres etc. Similarly, the national force must be seen as a provider of central services to its ‘customers’ in the county forces, and must also learn to live within a tightened budget. In time I would expect that nobody would be permitted to join the national force without first having served a minimum period in a county force.

And all of the police forces should be more politically and financially accountable. The county police forces would be the visible face of policing for most people, and should be made directly accountable to local representatives (maybe to an elected police commissioner or mayor?) and funded directly from the council tax (without any unaccountable precepts). Meanwhile the national force shall report directly to a Welsh Government Minister (for internal affairs?) and funded centrally.

But we clearly have too many counties at present to make this work, and we should be aiming to reduce our number of county councils to maybe 10-12. Meanwhile the National police force would be accountable to and funded directly by the Welsh Government- but this does not mean that the national police functions would all become centralized in Cardiff – they would still operate out of their existing centres in Bridgend, Cwmbran, etc except that these would become the regional delivery centres of the national force.

If we are to avoid the mistakes of the past, we have to do things differently in the future.

The Way Forward

2011-05-27T05:28:00.002Z

In order for Wales to move progressively towards independence, then we will need to adress our constitutional status, by pursiung the transfer of powers from Westminster to Cardiff, and establshing the institutions neccesary to wield those powers.

However, this can not be done in isolation, and we need to make progress on two other fronts in parallel.

Firstly - the economy. An independent Wales will not succeed if we remain in our current economic mess, and we must look to build on our limited economic success stories, strengthen the weaker performing ones and identify new opportunities. It is apparent that the more successful independence movements in Europe (Catalonia, Basque, Flanders) all have strong economic bases to give themselves confidence. We can not simply say that we will become rich after independence - we must start building today.

Secondly - hearts and minds. Wales will never gain independence if its people consider themselves to be anything but Welsh. Recent polls have shown an increasing number of people who consider themselves Welsh before British, but a disappointing number still cling to the approns of the British Empire. Welsh conciousness has grown dramatically in the last few generations but it is still a work in progress and we must take every opportunity to build our nation in the hearts and minds of the people.

To achieve these two objectives it may be neccesary to discard current practices and start to think outside of the box. To challenge and cross current party battle lines and disregard political correctness. We need to shake things up!!

Our Journey

2011-05-24T04:33:00.007Z

Ron Davies famously remarked that devolution is a journey and not an event, while opponents have claimed that it is the slippery slope to independence.

But it is more like climbing a staircase, which is an uphill climb, not a downhill slope. The bottom of the staircase is where we were in 1746 – fully annexed and being squeezed into extinction, while at the top of the staircase is our ultimate destination – full independence.

We have already started to climb the staircase, and have taken a series of steps off the bottom. Some of these steps have been major milestones (our Acts of Disunion), but alongside these, and equally as important, have been a series of smaller incremental steps. These smaller steps have helped reduce the size to the next step, both physically and mentally, and their importance should not be underestimated. They also maintain forward momentum between the larger milestones.

Today we are maybe halfway along our journey and we must continue to push forward and upward, although we can also stop for a rest on any step for a while if needed. And one day we will need to ask ourselves how many aircraft carriers we need or where we should site our foreign embassies, but that is a little premature for now. Today we need to focus on building a nation that is confident enough to take the next steps, while rebuilding our economy so that we will be ready for the final step.

Act 4

2011-05-17T12:29:00.003Z

Almost as soon as the first Assembly was launched it was blindingly obvious to everyone (except those Labour politicians who didn’t want it in the first place) that the National Assembly did not have the powers or structure to enable it to do its job properly. So in 2002 the now-named Welsh Assembly Government appointed an independent commission to review the powers and arrangements of the Assembly and to make recommendations for its future. Much like the Kilbrandon Report it recommended a legislative parliament similar to the Scottish parliament, with 80 members elected by STV. But much like the Kilbrandon report its views were largely ignored and London’s Labour politicians used the opportunity for some partisan gerrymandering, and created the Government of Wales Act 2006.

This established some limited legislative powers, but which had to be requested from Westminster on a case-by-case basis through a tortuous process of Legislative Competency Orders, which led to even the simplest piece of legislation taking up to 3 years to be passed. This masterpiece of obfuscation was hailed by Peter Hain as settling the devolution settlement for a generation, but this was not to be the case.

Although the initial act was passed in 2006, it also contained a provision to implement law-making powers directly without reference to Westminster or veto by Secretary of State, providing that a referendum be held on its implementation.

Of course Peter Hain had rigged the rules for a referendum so that it could not be held until a time of his choosing (ie never), but he did not do his electoral arithmetic. After Labour failed to secure a majority in the 2007 election, and were forced into a coalition with Plaid, the conditions for a referendum were eventually met and a referendum was held in early 2011.

Despite Peter Hain’s earlier insistence that a referendum could not be won, it was won comfortably and without the East-West spilt of the 1997 referendum, and the Welsh Assembly finally received legislative powers in 2011. I consider this (rather than the enabling GOWA 2006) to be:

The Fourth Act of Disunion

Where next for Wales?

Act 3

2011-05-15T07:17:00.005Z

Following the UK government’s unwillingness to implement the Kilbrandon recommendations, and the subsequent failure of the 1979 referendum, Wales had to endure another generation of misrule from Westminster before the issue of devolution returned to the political agenda.

This period was typified by Wales being led by successive Secretaries of State with only tenuous Welsh links and no Welsh democratic mandate. At the time Welsh industry was being ravaged by Thatherite economic policies, and it gradually became obvious to many who voted NO in 1979 that Wales needed its own political voice.

So following the election of a Labour Westminster government in 1997, a new devolved administration for Wales was proposed and successfully (although narrowly) approved in a referendum. This led to the Government of Wales Act 1998 which established a democratically elected National Assembly in Cardiff. Despite having only limited powers, it did at least establish a first national, representative and democratic body for Wales, and I consider this to be our

Third Act of Disunion.

Even before it was opened, the Assembly got off to a shaky start, with endless arguments about detail (National Assembly for Wales or National Assembly of Wales) as the losing side in the referendum tried to emasculate the Assembly before it even started. There were arguments about where it should be sited (not necessarily in our capital city!) and Labour’s first choice for Welsh leader having to step down amid a sex scandal. Eventually the first elections were held in 1999, and Labour’s imposed candidate for First Secretary won a less than resounding victory to take up his post in an anonymous office block in Cardiff Bay.

The Assembly took a little while to settle in, and it took the concerted efforts of three men in particular – Rhodri Morgan, Ron Davies and Dafydd Ellis Thomas – to raise the status and perception of the Assembly. A series of small steps that did not need legislation – changing the initial title of First Secretary to First Minister – calling the new Assembly building the Senedd – went a long way to changing the Assembly from a glorified county council into a national institution.

But without legislative powers, the Assembly would always have a limited role, and impact.

The Act That Never Was

2011-05-12T08:10:00.000Z

While the UK government were starting to mend past wrongs with the first Welsh Language Act of 1967, they also started to reconsider the constitutional structure of the UK and established The Royal Commission on the Constitution, whose findings were published in 1973 as the Kilbrandon Report.

Its findings (especially for Wales) were revolutionary for their time, and still are today. It recommended a full Legislative Assembly be established, with a similar remit to today’s Scottish Parliament, ie all responsibility to be transferred except for specified reserve powers. It recommended the Assembly be named the Senate (Senedd), with 100 members chosen by STV and be headed by the Welsh Premier. Here we are 35 years later, and we have still not achieved this early vision.

What I found particularly interesting in the report was the ‘Minority Report’ published by two commission members who felt that the recommendations did not go far enough, and instead proposed a form of federalism for the UK which would have given Wales almost full sovereignty over its internal affairs.

But alas, as with most Royal Commissions, its views were compromised, butchered and rehashed by the politicians, and the eventual proposals to be put forward in the Wales Act 1978 offered Wales little more than a glorified county council.

The people of Wales subsequently rejected the proposals in the 1979 referendum for a variety of reasons – some people were genuinely scared of the possible prospects for independence – some people felt the proposals did not go far enough. Certainly the Yes campaign did not inspire many voters, who were more preoccupied with recent memories of miners strikes and 3-day weeks.

And so a golden opportunity was lost for another generation and another final push was needed.

First Acts of Disunion

2011-05-12T06:32:00.000Z

Although Wales had been fully annexed and incorporated within England since the 16th century, there remained a strong and distinct Welsh identity, and by the 19th century movements such as Cymru Fydd were actively campaigning for self-government for Wales.

The UK government started to recognize this and in 1881 passed the first law since the Acts of Union that applied only to Wales – the Sunday Closing (Wales) Act. Other Wales-only laws followed (the Welsh Intermediate Education Act in 1989, and the Welsh Cemeteries Act in 1908) but the next piece of Welsh legislation was more significant:

The Church in Wales Act of 1914 (although not implemented until 1920 because of the First World War), created a new Anglican Church in Wales – independent from the Church of England, and not part of the government establishment. This might seem largely irrelevant today, but was hugely significant (and at the time controversial) because it the first time that a part of Wales was separated away from England. This was the first official recognition that the 1535 Act of Union had failed to integrate Wales into England as originally intended, and I consider this:

The First Act of Disunion

The late 19th and early 20th century saw a general rise in Welsh consciousness with a number of national institutions established and the formation of Plaid Cymru in 1925. In response to increasing demands for more consideration of Welsh affairs, the UK government started a process of administrative devolution, creating the Council for Wales in 1949 to be replaced by the Office of Secretary of State for Wales in 1964 and the Welsh Office in 1965.

While still controlled very closely from Westminster, this led ultimately to a major step forward – the Welsh Language Act of 1967. While this was significant in its own right because it gave the first official recognition to Cymraeg - of arguably more significance was Part 4 of the Act which repealed the Wales and Berwick Act (as relating to Wales). From this point on, the term England would no longer be deemed to include Wales, and I consider this:

The Second Act of Disunion

Another step forward came five years later with the Local Government Act of 1972, which clarified the boundaries of Wales, and in particular removed the confusion over Monmouthshire which was now clearly and unequivocally in Wales.

Wales had survived England’s best efforts to remove us from the map, and our borders were even growing! However, we remained firmly ruled from England.

Acts of Union

2011-05-09T16:02:00.002Z

In order to consider our route towards independence, we need to look back to find a starting point for our journey:

Unlike Scotland, which was united politically with England in a single Act of Union in 1707, Wales was not united with England but annexed, and this took place in a series of separate acts, each with different implications for Wales.

Following completion of England’s military conquest of Wales in the 12th & 13th century, the ‘Statute of Rhuddlan’ in 1284 divided Wales into the Principality and Marches. This did not unite Wales with England, but instead placed Wales firmly under England’s direct rule, and this situation continued for around 250 years.

Then in 1535 the ‘First Act of Union’ (officially called the ‘Laws in Wales Act 1535’ but originally called ‘An Act for Laws & Justice to be ministered in Wales in like form as it is in this Realm’) formally annexed Wales into England and divided Wales into its traditional 13 counties. This transferred some land from the Welsh Marches into Herefordshire and Shropshire, but also had the effect of formally establishing the border of Wales which has remained virtually unchanged to this day.

This was followed in 1542 by the ‘Second Act of Union’ (officially called the ‘Laws in Wales Act 1542’ but originally called ‘An Act for certain Ordinances in the Kings Majesties, Dominion and Principality of Wales’) which brought Wales fully into the English legal system. This divided 12 of the counties of Wales into 4 legal circuits, but placed Monmouthshire into an English circuit, with the unintended effect of confusing the status of Monmouthshire between England and Wales.

Despite these Acts, Wales remained as a distinct legal entity until 1746 when the ‘Wales & Berwick Act’ categorically stated that any reference to England would henceforth include Wales (and Berwick). This was arguably the lowest point in our national status, and it is from here that our journey to independence must begin.

(I originally posted this in May 2009 and I apologise for posting it again, but it is neccesary for completeness)

Scottish Lessons

2011-05-07T14:10:00.004Z

In the Scottish parliament elections a few days ago, the SNP romped home to a spectacular and decisve victory. The SNP were actively promoting Scottish independence as a key policy and this should now result in a referendum on independence.

Compare this situation to the Welsh result, where our nationalist party has been terrified to discuss the I-word, and their equivocal position has been duly rewarded by the electorate. What is the point of a nationalist party if they will not promote a nationalist agenda?

Well despite this lack of leadership from our so-called political leaders, there are many in Wales (both inside and outside Plaid) who do support independence and who are prepared to discuss it and to persuade others to join the cause.

This blog has been created to discuss our journey towards independence, the steps that we must travel and the obstacles that we must overcome. This blog is actually not new, as was originally started two years ago, but I decided to concentrate first on helping to secure a Yes vote in the legislative powers referendum. Now that this has been succesfully achieved, it is time to look to our future again, and to restart this blog.